Welcome back to my XCB Metagaming mini-series. Last article, we talked about analyzing data and working with scores and card choices to determine what was going on in a particular metagame. This work is vastly important to what deck you will build for the next round.

If you didn’t read my last XCB article, I advise you to do so. The work we’ll be doing today will be an extension of that article.

This week, we’re going to be heading into Parts 2 & 3, where we’ll be working with the information we’ve gleaned from last week’s results, and we’ll be building preliminary decklists. Without a lot of jabbering, let’s get down to it.

PART 2: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE METAGAME, AND PRELIMINARY DECISION-MAKING

In normal Magic: the Gathering, you would use all the information you’ve collected at this point and (hopefully) realize what kind of deck you need to build based on the strength of certain match-ups between decks. You’d be able to tell whether or not the metagame was more aggro or control, and you’d be able to build decks accordingly. With testing, you’d be able to see how your deck would do against the majority of the decks in the field. You would be able to get the rough odds for a deck pre and post sideboard, and you’d be able to make the most informed decision.

XCB does not have that luxury. XCB may have certain decklists that remain standard throughout the game’s history, but these decks don't fall into tiers or fall in line with the match-up win percentages that are so common in the analysis of other metagames. This is due primarily to small deck size, and the way the XCB is run. Everything in XCB is mathematically determined, and therefore, you can’t get lucky, and you always have the cards you have in your deck.

Because this is the case in XCB, you must take a look at the power of individual cards throughout the XCB metagame, and base our decisions from their appearance in the previous week's round, instead of looking just at lists. Lists are very important in determining what decks will be played next round, but in order to primarily understand the metagame for XCB, you need to understand what cards are being used as threats and answers. Using this information, and all our analysis from this week, we can make a few important observations, and then, with those observations, we can make a few assumptions that can help us build a deck.

1a) The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale is the most game defining card in the meta. EGG IN THE BASKET decks couldn't pay for their creatures and keep them around, so the points they lost have shifted the metagame in favor of the Upkeep land. Other decks also could not work optimally because of mana constraints.

1b) EGG IN THE BASKET decks will most likely decrease during next week's round, as their poor performance against Tabernacle will make players wary of playing them.

1c) We can be expect that players will play less creatures in general due to the presence of Tabernacle. This means that creature control will be slightly less relevant this round.

1d) To complement point 1c, strategies that utilize no creatures will be played more heavily this round due to Tabernacle.

2) Artifacts saw a small modicum of success last round, but not enough to make people play large amounts of artifact hate. People will also notice how badly Chimpanzee's deck did in comparison to the original TET.dec, and will shy away from artifact hate this round. This means that artifacts will be more prevalent than normal, increasing the power of artifact hate.

3) Combining the information from 2 and 1d, based on our analysis, it appears that as a whole, more decks will use artifacts to win the game, since creatures are on the fall and artifacts are on the rise.

4) TURN 1 CONTROL decks may see an increase in players, due to the fact that they normally have the requisite 1 mana to pay upkeep costs. However, it seems more likely that TURN 1 CONTROL decks will stay low due to Tabernacle fear.

5) Abandon Hope has been unbanned. This card is a powerful COMBO CONTROL element with Nether Spirit and Black Lotus. There is a chance that some players will be playing it, realizing that it is strictly better than the normal Last Rites combo deck that normally works with.

If all this information is compiled, it seems we need to build a deck that is effective at dealing with artifacts and can be able to run the gamut against The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale. The deck doesn't need to focus too much on creature disruption, since creatures will not be as present as the last round. If we can disrupt creatures by playing a card that can kill creatures and an opponent at will, we can maximize our chances. With all that in mind, it's time to look at the cards.

PART 3: DECK AGENDAS, CARD SELECTION, PRELIMINARY DECKS

STEP A: MAKE A DECK AGENDA

Our final decisions from Part 2 are what our next deck will need to do in the current metagame. It is best if you break all that information up into bullet points and rank the information according to what you believe the deck needs most or what it needs to do best. These are "deck agendas," and they'll help lead the way to show you how to build your deck.

1) Has to win games – duh!
2) Has to be effective against artifacts and The Tabernacle
3) Has to focus on winning against non-EGG IN A BASKET decks
4) Doesn't have to focus on creature control

While this list isn't necessary, I like to use it because it helps you collect your thoughts as you move into card selection.

STEP B: PRELIMINARY CARD CHOICES

There are many cards that are good against Tabernacle. Let's take a look at them really quickly.

Dust Bowl - Dust Bowl is a special type of card, because it requires you have three mana available, but Dust Bowl in a three land deck may not do so bad.

Isochron Scepter - Great against Tabernacle, since you'll either play Fire//Ice or Lightning Helix along with it. - No creatures, no upkeep cost, and therefore, no way to lose your win condition.

Suspend Creatures - Any of the 1 mana suspend creatures will work wonders here, since you have 1 mana to play them, and then one mana to keep them around. This could be paired with a piece of 1 cost spot removal for creatures or artifacts.

Aura of Silence - While not as good against Tabernacle, it does wonders against other artifacts and Black Lotus startups. It's worth a look into.

Vindicate - While I don't like playing strict land destruction spells in XCB, Vindicate is an amazing card that can stop many problems. Unfortunately, the only way to play this card effectively is a bounce land from Ravnica, which means you have to play another land. Still, man-lands aren't terrible, right?

With these cards in mind, let's look at some preliminary deck builds.

STEP C: DECKS BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY CARD CHOICES

Here are the decks I've developed from the cards I've discussed.

This deck relies on the pure power of Mishra’s Factory to win the game, but it’s great against storage lands, Karoo-type lands, The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale – well, actually, it’s good against any deck that needs its non-basic lands! The best thing about the Factory is that it can eat the extra Eladamri's Vineyard mana that TET.dec will produce.

There’s not a whole lot that’s bad about Lightning Helix. In fact, when the metagame is right, Lightning Helix is an amazing card. It’s so great, in fact, that it’s one of the defining decks of 3CB. The bad thing about Helix is that it’s a deck that gets pushed out of the metagame very easily. It’s a deck that’s full of power, but very weak at the same time. Decks that run Trinisphere or Sphere of Resistance are great against this deck.

Slightly unconventional, this deck takes advantage of the Suspend mechanic in order to pump out a giant creature. This deck does great against artifacts, which is nice when you’re up against a metagame full of Mishra’s Workshops. This deck does well against The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale too because it can pay the 1 mana it takes to keep a Durkwood Baloth around.

This deck is an interesting choice against TET.dec, mainly because it’s the only deck in this list that goes 2-2 against it. TET.dec keeps Treasure Hunter off the table, but it doesn’t get to keep its Vineyard, so there’s a tie. I bring this deck up because of its extreme power against certain other decklists, and its amazing ability going first.

Of all the removal in any format, Vindicate is surely one of the best ever printed. With its ability to step out above the crowd to beat face and take names, it’s one of the favorite picks for a deck that’s running with Karoo-lands for XCB. The best part about Vindicate is that’ it’s Land Destruction against TET.dec. Strangely enough, this card is actually going to take out the Treetop Village or Eladamri's Vineyard instead of Tabernacle – weird, huh?

STEP D: CUT THE CHAFF

Between all of these decks, the main goal is to hopefully bring your selection of the lists you’ve made down to two decks. Let's do a little deciding, and cut it down to two from this list.

The Aura Hunter deck is really the first on the chopping block. 2-2 against a major archetype? No thanks. This decklist can take the axe. Next!

The suspend card seems a little hazy, since the Oxidize just isn't cutting it for quality removal. We could use Drop of Honey, but if it was used, the opponent would hold their creatures back until the Baloth hit the table. Not a good position to be in. Let's cut this deck.

Same goes for the Dust Bowl deck. Unfortunately, Mishra’s Factory, while an amazing card that truly affects the way the game of XCB is played, is not all that powerful without some other type of removal. While this deck is great against Tabernacle, it's not good against many other decks. We can nix this one too.

STEP E: PICK THE DECK

VS

These two decks are the decks we have left. Both will probably do well in the metagame, so I don't feel bad about picking one over the other. However, I do know that the Isochron Scepter deck is more powerful in the long run against most decks. I’m also slightly concerned with the speed of Vindicate here – it’s a great card, but it takes a few turns to play. The time that you need can be suicidal if you’re on a fast clock.

Since I want to have the most power possible throughout the entire match against an opponent, let's go with the Isochron Scepter deck right now. Next time, we'll come back with our newfound decklist, and we'll be doing some analysis of the picks we've made thus far. We'll be choosing a final decklist, and then, we'll see how well we analyzed the metagame. It's going to be an interesting conclusion for sure.

Until next time- Get Blind.

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Articles Spotlights from 2007:
Lorwyn Theme Week Intro & Schedule of Events
Blink And Bounce: Timing is Key
Going Blind: XCB Metagaming - A Prolonged Conclusion.
The Science of Magic: Genetic Engineering, Part Two.
Shifting Lineaments: Casual Metagaming (Pt. 2).
The Dungeon Of Malefict: Pure Evil!
Land Week Introduction & Schedule.
Combofusion: Legends Timeshifted.
One Card to Rule Them All: Coastal Piracy
Irrational Love: Chimeras. The Lego's of Magic.