Magic Deck Vortex: Breaking the Meta - Part One: What is the Meta?

Definition :: The Metagame(Meta) is an elaborate system of deck archetypes that influences what you play competitively in a specified format. The decks that determine the makeup of this system are generally chosen by which decks in the format are the most popular and successful. For example, you and a friend are playing Magic, and he tells you he wants to test an aggro deck he just made. So, you select the best creature control deck you have for this match. That night, he plays you round after round and loses each time. Why? Why did your friend lose every game? Was his deck bad? Is he a bad player? No, you simply had the valuable information of knowing what he was playing and you reacted accordingly. This is the general idea behind playing the metagame, knowing what you are playing against and act accordingly. The difference here is that the meta for a set format is much larger then one type of deck; therefore, it is more complicated to understand. That being said lets take a look at the categories the metagame is generally defined by.

In General the Meta can be broken down into 3 categories: Static, Dynamic, and Variable. Let’s take a closer look at each.

Static Meta- A static metagame is one where you are fairly certain you know what you will be playing against. A static metagame changes rarely; however, when those changes do occur, they are almost imperceptible, or completely overwhelming. An example of a static meta would be competitive Vintage and Legacy play, both of which have been dominated by the same ten decks for the past several years. Decks like Threshold and Goblins are both very powerful, and if you build a deck that works badly against major static metagame decks, you won’t do very well.

Dynamic Meta- A dynamic metagame is an environment where you are unsure of what you will be facing. The environment changes at such a fast pace that it is hard to keep up with what decks are being played. This is especially true after a set change or a card banning. As new cards are added to the format cardpool, decks change and evolve. Another way a metagame can be dynamic is if there are a large number of cards in the cardpool, but there are no overwhelmingly powerful strategies. A good example of this type of dynamic meta would be competitive Extended play, in which the top deck types are constantly changing because of deckbuilding innovations.

Variable Meta - A variable metagame is one that is consistent but susceptible to change. Decks change on a daily basis, but mostly due to player preference and card availability. Decks also change to accommodate certain decks that become more prevalent, but things generally stay the same. An example of a variable Meta would be competitive Standard play because the top decks remain fairly consistent but are occasionally altered.

Note :: Most formats never stick in one metagame forever. New card sets can change even the most static metagame. A good example was the Vintage (T1) metagame after Trinisphere was printed. Suddenly, a metagame that was rather unmoving fluxed rather unexpectedly, and for a time, it became a Dynamic metagame. It settled into a Variable meta for about a year, and then after Trinisphere was restricted, the metagame once again shifted back into a Static metagame.

Now that you understand the categories the meta is broken down into, let’s take a look at swings.

Knowing the metagame can help you to predict which decks you will encounter in competitive play; however, it will not tell you how often you will play against a given deck. Sometimes there are generalized trends, called a “swing” towards or away from a specific deck archetype in a format. This may be due to tournament success or even media revealing it to the general public.

For example, PTQs are some of the most varied events when it comes to a metagame because the metagame tends to change from qualifier to qualifier as new decks emerge and old decks lose to new deck modifications. For instance, if the first week of a round of constructed PTQs end with a specific deck winning across the board, then in the next PTQ, it is probably a safe bet to say that a lot of people will either be running that deck, or will be modifying their deck to beat that deck along with most of the known field. Some players may even take this idea to a different level (especially if that one deck is the only one that is winning), and build a deck made only to destroy the “meta leader”. In a combo heavy metagame, for instance, the metagame could “swing” more towards control to beat a variety of combo decks.

Why is this important? Realizing why swings occur helps you as a competitive Magic player. One of the major challenges you must work with and around as a competitive Magic player is to recognize and predict these swings and then take advantage of them. If you a pretty sure that the metagame is about to swing towards control decks because of a heavy influence of combo decks in the format, then you might be do better by building an anti-control deck that also has a good match up against the combo deck that was winning all those games from the previous week.

This article will look at four of the most common ways in which a swing in the metagame happens. This swing occurs due largely to four main themes, which we shall call Idolism, Tournament Success, Hype, and Wow Factor. These effects are not the only reasons that a swing can happen, however, they are the most prevalent.

An Idolism swing is caused by a famous player running a deck to moderate or great success at a tournament, and suddenly everyone is running it trying to make it better. Take Dirty Kitty from Worlds as an example. While it did not post great rankings compared with a lot of the other decks at Worlds ’06, it drew a lot of attention because it was being played by Billy Moreno (a semi-famous American Pro who made it to the top 8 at PT Los Angeles). Suddenly, a lot of goblin builds where running the fecundity engine, online and off. However, this deck build has almost left play on MTGO due to people finding the combo somewhat unwieldy. So, Idolism swings in a given metagame are based partly upon the player running them and partly upon the success it shows in the tournament it gets played in.

Tournament Success swings are a pretty straightforward concept to visualize. A deck is piloted to a beautiful finish at a PT and within a couple of weeks, a large percentage of the tournament decks being run, from FNM to PT, is the deck originally run in the PT. That is a swing actually based upon hard numbers and true data. If a deck wins then, there is probably a reason it won. Look at Boros Deck Wins in the current Standard metagame as a good example of this trend.

Hype usually occurs due to internet media talking about how incredible a certain deck is in the given format. If Brian David-Marshall talks about an extended deck on Magicthegathering.com or Stephen Menendian on SCG talks about a vintage deck, many players are likely to listen to the advice of these two veterans as to what is or is not a good deck. Whether or not their opinion is based on fact or just that opinion only play testing and time can tell. However, you can be assured some people will run their decks.

Have you ever seen a deck that made your mouth drop with how it worked? Your response was, “WOW! I need to build that deck and try it out!” Then later, someone else sees the deck you are running and wants to give it a spin. This is how the Wow Factor occurs. It does not happen very often in Magic; however, sometimes decks are just so neat or so astounding that many players are drawn to them. The problem with this swing is you usually can not see it coming. It just happens. Take the deck, Turbo Stasis, one of the best (at the time) decks to ever hit any tournament scene. It started in a little local comic shop, and within a few months was all over the Pro Tour. This deck was played by numerous people because it was a deck that made you sit and go…wow.

All this information leads to one big revelation: Swing can come about in many different ways and it can affect many things, from your local comic shop to Worlds. Swing is a very important thing for any tournament magic player to take into consideration while building their deck for a tournament.

Now that you understand how “swing” in deck lists, deck choices, and the metagame come about, let’s look at how to apply this knowledge on a local or even a national scale.

Static Meta- The static metagame is the easiest to apply this information to, as it is rarely changing. Therefore, it is easy to spot swings when they occur. Since the meta remains practically the same, you will be able to judge which decks you will be facing and therefore prepare your deck quite accordingly. Knowing almost exactly what you will face, allows you to do several things:

Variable Meta- The variable metagame has far less considerations then either of the other two metagame situations. Basically, take a solid deck and fix its weak points against the metagame you know to already exist. There is not much else you can do in a largely varied format except try to anticipate what decks will be there and try to fix your deck’s hard match-ups.

Dynamic Meta- The dynamic metagame is the hardest meta to stay ahead of. The top decks change constantly and the swings are so frequent that the only way you can keep ahead of them is to keep track of every Magic article and tournament report on the web (not an easy task, I assure you). As a rule of thumb, your job in a dynamic metagame is to build a deck that fares good against many different types of decks, rather than the more precise deck building that a static or variable meta will normally require. For example, if you wanted to sideboard a Circle of Protection (CoP) spell in your sideboard, but did not know which color was dealing the most damage in the current meta, you would be better off using Story Circle in your sideboard rather than any one CoP because it is generally an all around better card and you will not know for sure what you will be facing.

OVER

So why are we telling you all of this information? The answer is simple: If you want to play in constructed Magic tournaments seriously, you need to consider the metagame and try to predict the swings that will occur in it. Take our advice, and analyze the metagame. Then, take your inside knowledge of the metagame and use it when building a deck. If you can do this, you will be one step closer to that Pro Tour qualification or FNM promo card, or perhaps you will convince your friend to finally quit playing that Sliver deck.

Now that you know what it takes to predict a metagame, start practicing. Next time we meet, we will be looking at the most ancient formats in Magic: Vintage and Legacy. Until then, never forget that when it comes to Magic the Gathering, knowledge is power.

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