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Before I actually get into the article, there is something else I think I need to get out of the way. As I read through this for a second time, I realized that I use some terminology that a lot of non-drafters may not be familiar with. For that reason, I’m going to put a little dictionary up here for your reference.
Now to the actual article... I hope you have your swimming suits on, because today we dive feet first into the Æther Pool. In the two previous articles, I discussed the basics of a booster draft. Today, we go beyond the surface, and start to dissect certain aspects of draft. If you remember, I left you with this pack last time:
I asked you to decide what card you would draft, and what card you think your opponent will draft. I got some pretty interesting views on the boards. For the most part, the general consensus was that the Grave-Shell Scarab is the first pick. I agree with this, as the Scarab is a bomb in draft, and will be one of the main win conditions in the deck. Where this gets a little tricky is trying to figure out what your opponent will pick. There are three, some would argue four, cards in this pack that are at equal or extremely similar power levels. They next best cards are (in no particular order) Snapping Drake, Brainspoil, Stinkweed Imp, and Divebomber Griffin. If any one of the first three gets second picked, you may be in trouble. Why are you in trouble? Well, lets break it down by scenarios. While reading these scenarios, keep in mind that we don’t know the first pick of the person to our left. That pick will have an impact on what card they choose and what colors they decide to settle into. However, because of the unknown, we have to ignore it for our reasoning.
So how am I able to determine what colors each scenario would probably lead to? The idea is to look at what type of signals each pick would send. Signaling is probably the hardest part of draft to grasp and understand for newer players. There is a lot of guesswork involved, and if you are wrong, your draft can go very badly. So for that reason, I’ll discuss it first. Signaling. In the first installment of my “The Games People Play” article series, I mentioned that casual players should use the pro tours to learn. So, in order to practice what I preach, we’ll do that. Before we continue, I encourage you all to open Wizard’s Draft Viewer. Also, before I jump into this, one little aside: I know that everything I say here is hindsight. However, hindsight is the best way to learn. After all, experience is the thing that you don’t have until just after you need it. For analysis, let’s look at Masashi Oiso’s draft. Click on Oiso’s name at the table in the upper right-hand corner. Oiso’s initial pack offered a few good cards, but all of them in two colors. Black shows Rend Flesh and Gutwrencher Oni, while green shows Moss Kami. My pick would have been the Moss Kami. By doing that, you ship two good black cards to the person on your left; which is a clear signal that black is open. But, if you remember my previous two articles, I said rule #1 was that removal is extremely important in draft. With this in mind, Oiso drafted the Rend, which is completely understandable.
Picking the rend, however, sends a somewhat mixed signal. Seeing both the Oni and the Kami could indicate that both green and black are open. Obviously, this isn’t the case. But, if you “cut” black, you shouldn’t have too much of a problem. Remember this as we progress through the packs. Next, click pick 2, so we can look at the second pick. This pack is where I think Oiso messed up his entire draft. Good green cards show up in force here. Kodama’s Might, STE, and Sosuke are all possible second-pick quality. People may argue STE isn’t, but that is for another time. Meanwhile, black shows up with the other Rend, and a Villainous Ogre. Personally, I think the correct pick here is the Red Spirit. Because of the previous pass, the goal is to keep the person on your left away from black. If you send a Rend Spirit one pack after a Gutwrencher Oni, you are sending a clear signal that black is open. If you send a pack with the three green cards still available and only one black card, the signal changes to “go green.”
Oiso picked Sosuke, shipping the Rend. Pack three is pretty much a no-brainer. Scuttling Death is the best card left. Even though you are shipping a decent black card in Nezumi Ronin, scuttles is better. Had Oiso picked the second Rend, the Ronin would have probably been passed by the person on your left as well. So after scuttles goes face-down into the pile, we move to pick 4.
Pick 4 is where the mistake in pick 2 becomes huge. It has nothing to do with signaling, but with his previous picks. There are no quality black cards, so its time to look at your second color. The two next best cards are Kami of Fire’s Roar and Kami of the Hunt. The better card is Fire’s Roar. However, because of Oiso’s second-pick Sosuke, he’s pretty much forced himself into green/black. Therefore, Kami of the Hunt entered Oiso’s pile.
Pick 5 shows only one good black card (Cranial Extraction isn’t good in draft), which is actually a little scary. Reading the signals that we’re getting is telling us that black is starting to dry up. The last pack had only one black card total, while this pack has only one good black card. Reading the signals also shows that green seems to be drying up as well. Red, on the other hand, still has both Hearth Kami and Kami of Fire’s Roar. However, we are already entrenched in black, so Scuttling Death is a logical pick. After 5 or 6 picks, signaling becomes less of a factor. By this point, almost everyone at the table will be locked into two colors. You should still be aware of what colors are coming around, because of a possible switch in pack 2, but the focus should turn more to looking at the good cards in your colors. For example, it appeared that black had started to dry up for Oiso. Eventually, it did dry up. Arnost Zidek, who was sitting on Oiso’s left, also was black. But Oiso was too deep into black to even consider switching. Why is signaling so important? Remember that in a booster draft, the second pack gets passed to the right. So if the person on your left is in your color, he’ll get all of the good cards in that color. This also show’s up in London’s draft. Antti Malin, who was sitting on Oiso’s left, did in fact go into black off the Oni and Rend. In the first pick of his second pack, he opened arguably the best removal in the format: Horobi’s Whisper. Had Oiso cut black by picking the second rend, the Whisper would most likely have been passed to him. Coming back to our pack, we have signaling concerns of our own. Basically, this pack shouts “Black is open!” So what is the best option? There is really nothing you can do about your neighbor(s) getting into black. With that many good black cards going around, it is inevitable. However, you can try and keep them from B/G. My suggestion is to attempt to cut green hard. If you don’t send many good green cards, the signal is that green is taken. So as you pick up your next pack, you are greeted with:
This is almost a perfect pack for our situation. There is only one good green card, while Peel from Reality could lead a black drafter on your left into Dimir. Meanwhile, seeing a Skynight Legionnaire and Thundersong Trumpeter both on the third pick is a very good signal that Boros is open. My pick would be the Caryatid. If you have a strong argument for something else, let me know in the forums, but I’m 99% certain that the wall is the right pick. With the rare in the pack being gone, we can’t get a clear signal of what the person to our right is in, so there is no consideration of that.
That’s all for today’s installment of the Æther Pool. I hope
it was informative. Signaling is the toughest part of draft. If you don’t
understand it, don’t worry; I’m sure I’ll be revisiting it again. But for now:
Everyone out of the pool! You can discuss this article in the MDV forums here. Most Popular
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